Rewind — the tape doesn't lie
Replay any past slate.
Exactly what we projected, frozen at slate time, next to what actually happened. Sort by the gap and study where the model wins — and where it doesn't.
0.400
Hitter rank corr
6.6
Hitter MAE
-0.551
Pitcher rank corr
209.5
Best lineup that night
Sets that night: early42_v6_delivered (42 lineups · best 164.1) · early42_v7_retro (42 lineups · best 209.5) · night11_615 (11 lineups · best 136.6) · night11_afterhours_PLAYED (11 lineups · best 149.1) · replay20_131399_early(top20of42) (20 lineups · best 178.8) · replay20_131393_night (20 lineups · best 146.3)
| player | team | pos | proj | ceil | actual ▾ | diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | LAD | H | 15.9 | 30.2 | 30.9 | +15.0 |
| Adley Rutschman | BAL | H | 12.0 | 27.1 | 25.7 | +13.7 |
| Brandon Lowe | PIT | H | 10.5 | 26.0 | 25.2 | +14.7 |
| Corey Seager | TEX | H | 10.4 | 25.3 | 24.9 | +14.5 |
| Cole Young | SEA | H | 10.7 | 26.1 | 24.7 | +14.0 |
| Pete Alonso | BAL | H | 13.1 | 30.0 | 22.2 | +9.1 |
| Luke Raley | SEA | H | 9.8 | 27.9 | 22.2 | +12.4 |
| Kyle Tucker | LAD | H | 10.9 | 25.7 | 19.2 | +8.3 |
| Freddie Freeman | LAD | H | 12.4 | 29.0 | 18.7 | +6.3 |
| Dominic Canzone | SEA | H | 10.1 | 26.5 | 18.7 | +8.6 |
| Colton Cowser | BAL | H | 9.4 | 23.6 | 18.7 | +9.3 |
| Kumar Rocker | TEX | P | 25.8 | 41.5 | 17.0 | -8.8 |
| Brandon Nimmo | TEX | H | 10.6 | 25.8 | 15.5 | +4.9 |
| Taylor Ward | BAL | H | 11.2 | 24.4 | 15.4 | +4.2 |
| Michael Wacha | KC | P | 25.9 | 44.3 | 15.0 | -10.9 |
| Julio Rodríguez | SEA | H | 12.9 | 28.9 | 12.5 | -0.4 |
| Andy Pages | LAD | H | 12.9 | 28.8 | 12.4 | -0.5 |
| Ezequiel Duran | TEX | H | 9.4 | 22.2 | 12.4 | +3.0 |
| Kyle Bradish | BAL | P | 26.9 | 46.1 | 12.0 | -14.9 |
| Spencer Horwitz | PIT | H | 9.4 | 23.1 | 9.5 | +0.1 |
| Jac Caglianone | KC | H | 10.7 | 24.0 | 9.2 | -1.5 |
| Nick Gonzales | PIT | H | 10.0 | 22.6 | 9.2 | -0.8 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | KC | H | 9.5 | 22.9 | 9.2 | -0.3 |
| Jake Burger | TEX | H | 9.3 | 23.1 | 9.0 | -0.3 |
| Randy Arozarena | SEA | H | 13.3 | 29.5 | 6.2 | -7.1 |
| Bryan Reynolds | PIT | H | 10.7 | 24.5 | 6.2 | -4.5 |
| Gunnar Henderson | BAL | H | 10.3 | 24.7 | 6.2 | -4.1 |
| Bryan Woo | SEA | P | 28.4 | 46.9 | 6.0 | -22.4 |
| Mitch Keller | PIT | P | 21.8 | 40.4 | 6.0 | -15.8 |
| Max Muncy | LAD | H | 12.5 | 29.5 | 6.0 | -6.5 |
| Mookie Betts | LAD | H | 10.2 | 25.5 | 6.0 | -4.2 |
| Justin Wrobleski | LAD | P | 29.7 | 47.8 | 5.0 | -24.7 |
| Josh Naylor | SEA | H | 11.8 | 26.3 | 3.0 | -8.8 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | KC | H | 11.6 | 25.6 | 3.0 | -8.6 |
| Marcell Ozuna | PIT | H | 10.4 | 23.9 | 0.0 | -10.4 |
| Wyatt Langford | TEX | H | 10.1 | 23.4 | 0.0 | -10.1 |
| Josh Jung | TEX | H | 10.0 | 25.4 | 0.0 | -10.0 |
| Samuel Basallo | BAL | H | 9.9 | 25.2 | 0.0 | -9.9 |
| Ryan Ward | LAD | H | 9.5 | 24.6 | 0.0 | -9.5 |
| Leody Taveras | BAL | H | 9.1 | 21.6 | 0.0 | -9.1 |
| Anthony Kay | CWS | P | 23.7 | 41.6 | — | — |
| Martín Pérez | ATL | P | 22.1 | 38.2 | — | — |
| Miguel Vargas | CWS | H | 11.9 | 27.7 | — | — |
| Matt Olson | ATL | H | 11.5 | 28.7 | — | — |
| Michael Harris II | ATL | H | 11.3 | 27.9 | — | — |
| Colson Montgomery | CWS | H | 10.6 | 28.7 | — | — |
| Ozzie Albies | ATL | H | 9.6 | 23.2 | — | — |
| Mauricio Dubón | ATL | H | 9.6 | 22.7 | — | — |
| Jorge Mateo | ATL | H | 8.8 | 23.0 | — | — |
| Randal Grichuk | CWS | H | 8.8 | 23.1 | — | — |
Top 50 projected players per slate, frozen pre-lock. Refreshed automatically as each night grades.