MLB · Model v11
Every slate, simulated like it's already been played.
LightGBM projections on Statcast rolling form, matchup clashes, and Vegas totals — strikeouts anchored to live sportsbook K-lines, weather fitted on 4,234 real games.
Under the hood
What the engine actually does
Vegas-anchored pitching
Pitcher projections pull toward the sportsbook strikeout line — backtested to lift pitcher rank correlation 28%. The market knows things; we price them in.
Measured correlations
Stack math from 531k real teammate pairs: adjacent batters correlate .141, pitchers run −0.29 against the offense they face. Sims mirror reality, not assumptions.
Slate heat sizing
A fitted model of 443 slates tells us when a night is HEAVY (Coors, heat, stacked totals) and when to throttle. Construction adapts before lock.
Recent slates in the system
Tracked & logged
| Date | Slate | Players |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | FanDuel #131394 | 60 |
| 2026-06-11 | FanDuel #131395 | 60 |
| 2026-06-11 | FanDuel #131399 | 687 |
| 2026-06-11 | FanDuel #131393 | 407 |
| 2026-06-10 | FanDuel #131366 | 1497 |
| 2026-06-10 | FanDuel #131367 | 264 |
| 2026-06-10 | FanDuel #131371 | 65 |
| 2026-06-09 | FanDuel #131322 | 1231 |