MLB · Model v11

Every slate, simulated like it's already been played.

LightGBM projections on Statcast rolling form, matchup clashes, and Vegas totals — strikeouts anchored to live sportsbook K-lines, weather fitted on 4,234 real games.

Today's top plays · free look

Highest projected by position — with 4× boom odds

The top projected player at each FanDuel slot for 2026-06-13, with the simulated probability they return 4× their salary. The full board + optimizer is members-only.

P
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
LAD vs CWS
36
PROJ
23%
4× BOOM
C
Shea Langeliers
ATH vs COL
18.5
PROJ
48%
4× BOOM
1B
Nick Kurtz
ATH vs COL
23.4
PROJ
52%
4× BOOM
2B
Zack Gelof
ATH vs COL
13.7
PROJ
47%
4× BOOM
3B
Zack Gelof
ATH vs COL
13.7
PROJ
47%
4× BOOM
SS
Jacob Wilson
ATH vs COL
14.4
PROJ
51%
4× BOOM
OF
Tyler Soderstrom
ATH vs COL
16.7
PROJ
50%
4× BOOM

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Under the hood

What the engine actually does

Vegas-anchored pitching

Pitcher projections pull toward the sportsbook strikeout line — backtested to lift pitcher rank correlation 28%. The market knows things; we price them in.

Measured correlations

Stack math from 531k real teammate pairs: adjacent batters correlate .141, pitchers run −0.29 against the offense they face. Sims mirror reality, not assumptions.

Slate heat sizing

A fitted model of 443 slates tells us when a night is HEAVY (Coors, heat, stacked totals) and when to throttle. Construction adapts before lock.

Recent slates in the system

Tracked & logged

DateSlatePlayers
2026-06-13FanDuel #131465252
2026-06-13FanDuel #1314641096
2026-06-12FanDuel #1314261779
2026-06-11FanDuel #13139460
2026-06-11FanDuel #13139560
2026-06-11FanDuel #131399687
2026-06-11FanDuel #131393407
2026-06-10FanDuel #1313661497