NBA · Walk-forward validated

Projections that beat season averages by 11.7%.

84,726 player-games of training data. Walk-forward tested across seven monthly windows — never once losing to the baseline. Strongest exactly when it matters: the playoffs.

Single-Game Optimizer Model Results

7.72

Model MAE (vs 8.74 baseline)

.728

Rank corr (vs .638)

.801

Playoff-window rank corr

7/7

Monthly windows won

Live Vegas overlay

Implied team totals from FanDuel and DraftKings shift every projection before lock — pace and blowout risk priced in automatically.

Calibrated tails

p10/p50/p90 quantile models verified on the last 60 days: 9.8% / 47.8% / 87.6%. The ceiling we sim is the ceiling that happens.

Finals war room

Single-game MVP builds ranked by raw sim equity for the contest type — max median for cash, max p99 for tournaments.